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Simon Wren-Lewis

New post: Last week’s spending cuts were not the fault of the OBR or a medium term golden fiscal rule
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/
If the OBR hadn't been created Osborne's austerity would still have happened, and Reeves would almost certainly have done exactly what she did last week.

mainlymacro.blogspot.comLast week’s spending cuts were not the fault of the OBR or a medium term golden fiscal rule  In my last post I said that Rachel Reeves’s statement last week, and more generally the way fiscal policy has been done since 2010, had n...
Simon Wren-Lewis boosted
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Emeritus Prof Christopher May

There is now a critical consensus that Rachel Reeves *chose* to cut disability benefits to make up for a (projected) shortfall revealed by the interaction of the Office of Budget Responsibility's forecast(s) and her (self-imposed) fiscal rules.

Just to bang home this point (again) here is @sjwrenlewis offering an elegant argument (from a macroeconomics standpoint) that this was (and is) Reeves' choice not something 'forced' upon her!

#economics #politics

mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/

mainlymacro.blogspot.comWhy can’t we do fiscal policy in a grown up way?  I suspect to most people what Rachel Reeves announced yesterday went like this. The OBR published a forecast, something it has to do twic...
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Simon Wren-Lewis

Y'days post: Why can’t we do fiscal policy in a grown up way?
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/
In the last 6 months forecast taxes have fallen, so the government has reduced its spending plans to meet its fiscal rule. Cutting spending rather than raising taxes is a political choice.

mainlymacro.blogspot.comWhy can’t we do fiscal policy in a grown up way?  I suspect to most people what Rachel Reeves announced yesterday went like this. The OBR published a forecast, something it has to do twic...
Public
Simon Wren-Lewis

Y'days post: Labour’s strategic error on tax mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/
The failure to raise taxes further reflects the absence of any serious analysis of what will be required to allow a noticeable (to voters) improvement in public services before the next election.

mainlymacro.blogspot.comLabour’s strategic error on tax  Two things have become clear to many people since Labour came to government. The first is that the party had done less preparation work fo...
Public
Simon Wren-Lewis

New post: Labour’s strategic error on tax
mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/
Virtually all our neighbours raise more in taxes than we do. Quite simply, if we want as good public services as France, Germany, Spain or Italy, we need to pay more in taxes.

mainlymacro.blogspot.comLabour’s strategic error on tax  Two things have become clear to many people since Labour came to government. The first is that the party had done less preparation work fo...
Simon Wren-Lewis boosted
Public
Emeritus Prof Christopher May

Here's @sjwrenlewis arguing (rightly) that we should focus on GDP per capita when assessing the UK's economic performance not headline GDP... and then making the point that immigration can help the UK economic performance recover from the self-harm of Brexit.

However, the media & supine politicians seem unwilling to shift the story of the UK's plight away from one of blaming immigrants or ignoring the costs of Brexit.

We deserve better....

#economics #Brexit

mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/

mainlymacro.blogspot.comCurrent UK stagnation may have many causes, but one we know about is the UK media. Plus why the UK definition of a recession is no longer fit for purpose.  In the UK the definition of recession used by most people is two successive quarters of falling GDP. This definition always involved a kn...
Public
Simon Wren-Lewis

Y'days post: A New World Order mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2025/
Many European voters who might otherwise support a populist party may see with Trump what the reality of populist government entails and decide that is not to their liking.

mainlymacro.blogspot.comA New World Order  I don’t write about international power politics because normally I just don’t know enough about the countries and actors involved, even t...
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